Nestled within the Rhaetian Alps on the eastern edge of Switzerland sits Davos, the small resort town that is synonymous with the World Economic Forum. Earlier this year, over sixty heads of state and thousands of business executives, academics, and journalists flocked to the 56th iteration of the event in its annual effort to have leading minds and decision-makers tackle the most pressing global challenges.
This year’s theme, A Spirit of Dialogue, was meant to promote discussion and collaboration among attendees at what is a critical time for the world, with a particular focus on addressing the rapid pace of technological innovation. Panels ranged from ethical dilemmas surrounding artificial intelligence to the advancement of nuclear fusion and other clean energy solutions. Adjacent rooms scattered across the Davos Congress Centre hosted conversations and interviews with a myriad of world leaders from all continents.
But amid the global talent stuck between projector screens and minimalistic lounge chairs, there was one specific individual that made waves at this year’s event: Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney.
Before sitting down with Gideon Rachman, associate editor and chief foreign affairs commentator at the Financial Times, the Canadian prime minister delivered one of the most impactful World Economic Forum speeches on record. Carney offered a hard-hitting, blunt assessment on the current state of the world order, as well as providing a framework for how middle powers—seemingly stuck in diplomatic purgatory—should move forward. It cut no corners, candidly spelling out the new reality that has upended the international rules-based system in place since World War II and the need for countries to turn the page swiftly rather than becoming a footnote in a chapter that, despite everyone’s best wishes, has without a doubt concluded. The address earned a standing ovation—a rarity at an event typically characterized by measured reactions—and commentators praised Carney’s remarks. Journalist and Morning Joe co-host Willie Geist of MS NOW (formerly MSNBC) called it “extraordinary,” while CTV News political analyst Sharan Kaur noted it “commanded respect from world leaders across the globe.”
Since making that address, Carney has heeded his own advice, globetrotting in an effort to expand Canada’s footprint and diversify its export markets. This retail diplomacy has led to strategic partnerships with China and Qatar, both cited during his speech, but also with several other countries since the prime minister exited stage left.
After his first official visit to India in February—a frosty relationship that was in need of major repair—a host of commercial agreements worth $5.5 billion were announced. Additionally, both leaders committed to concluding a new Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which should double two-way trade between the two nations to $70 billion by 2030.
A few months later in Paris, Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a joint statement on quantum science and technology cooperation aimed at expanding both countries' presence in that segment of the global economy. This was complimented by visits to Australia, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, the latter of which produced 13 new commercial agreements and memorandums of understanding valued at over $1 billion.
Carney also visited Ireland in June, a meaningful trip to his ancestral homeland of Aughagower, Co. Mayo, but also one centred on the growing bilateral trade relationship between the two countries, including Ireland’s progress towards fully ratifying the Canada–European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).
However, the examples above only scratch the surface. Just last week, Carney flew to Türkiye, the first such visit to the country by a Canadian prime minister, producing a three-year action plan on trade, defence, and energy. In early November, a journey to Antigua and Barbuda is scheduled in order for Carney to attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, and to close out the year, the highly anticipated G20 summit in Miami will take place, certain to dominate headlines on both sides of the 49th parallel after failed trade talks between Canada and the United States soured an already fragile relationship.
Given the coalition building among middle powers and offence-driven strategy that’s shaping many of these engagements for Canada, it was something of a validation when president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, welcomed Carney to her State of the European Union (EU) address at the Parliament in Strasbourg, France. What followed came as a pleasant surprise, as von der Leyen extolled the prime minister and invited Canada to become the EU’s first associate member. This weighty invitation was unprecedented and met with raucous applause from sitting members of the European Parliament.
The following day, Carney returned to the very same room, delivering a sequel to what has since become his critically acclaimed Davos speech (albeit, with more wry commentary than before). Campbell Clark of the Globe & Mail summarized it perfectly: “If Davos was Mr. Carney’s diagnosis that middle powers had to work together to protect themselves against the hegemons, this speech in Strasbourg sketched out some of his prescription for how Canada and Europe can do that.”
Carney cited the history between Europe and Canada, and the “seeds, values, ideas, trade, people, and progress carried back and forth across the Atlantic for centuries.” Next was a suggestion to build upon what’s already been accomplished, including the success of CETA and Canada becoming the first non-European country to participate in the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) agreement. Looking ahead, Carney emphasized Canada’s aspirations to join Erasmus+, desire for membership in the next generation of Horizon, appetite to explore a transatlantic integrated market for financial services, and overwhelming support from the Canadian electorate for closer ties with Europe.
On the surface, this all seems utopic, an alignment of sorts on the third path forward Carney cited during his initial address in Davos. But the question on many minds after this invitation was extended is what does an “associate member” of the EU really mean? Well, as of right now, nothing.
The concept was first floated by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who wrote to EU leaders suggesting associate membership for Ukraine—an in-between step before full membership (which the country is actively pursuing) that would allow it to "participate in EU meetings and institutions without a vote.” Ultimately, the offer was rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy due to the voting restriction (and, just as importantly, Merz had promoted the idea unilaterally). As Politico has put it, “the phrase ‘associate member’ sounds like an established rung on the European Union’s membership ladder: It’s not. It’s a political concept with no legal status, yet.”
The closest living example for associate membership would be Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein's participation in the European Economic Area (EEA). The agreement, which also includes the 27 EU member states, allows for the free movement of people, goods, services, and capital, essentially enabling the three countries to participate in the European single market, but without providing them the political representation and, subsequently, diminished autonomy that would accompany full EU membership. Notably, these countries have not pursued full EU membership for a variety of domestic reasons. Iceland, for example, recently held a referendum on restarting EU membership talks where almost 53% of voters rejected the proposal. Fishing rights continued to remain a key driver of the “Vote No” campaign, with the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy and exposure to European rules and competition being too much to bear for the small Nordic island where the industry accounts for approximately 40% of export revenues.
The EEA, in combination with CETA (which eliminates 99% of all tariff lines but is awaiting full ratification from 10 EU member states), presents a framework for Canada and the EU to build off of. But to achieve the yet-to-be-defined associate member status, and for an appropriate RSVP to be delivered to von der Leyen’s invitation, both Canada and the 450 million-strong bloc will need to be dedicated to operationalizing such an alliance.
A recently shared memo from the General Secretariat of the Council of the EU detailed the upcoming EU-Canada Summit in Montreal later this week, with plans to launch the Canada-EU Alliance for the Future. Both parties are said to be focused on working towards a “landmark new partnership which will leverage [their] deep connections, historic ties, and shared values.” This certainly sounds like the beginning of operationalization, but interestingly enough, the communique does not include the term “associate member.”
The EU’s invitation ties right back to Carney’s now prescient speech from Davos: middle powers must stick together and build a “dense web of connections” as part of a third path forward. Considering the complexity of stretching membership beyond continental Europe and the cascading domestic issues facing both parties as the world becomes increasingly fractured, the amount of resources both Canada and the EU allocate to this concept will be paramount. A desultory approach to what has the potential to become a unique, transformative alliance could be fatal, rendering that invitation to nothing more than a pleasantry.